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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 23, 2017

Now, North Korea may have biological weapons. Every week, the news is worse and worse. Eventually, a conflict with North Korea will feel more like a relief to the public than an outrage, just from fatigue of bad news overdose. That level of fatigue is—or at least should be—part of military logistics calculation. However, that doesn't indicate whether the US plans a strike, only that increasing public support for action is yet another metaphoric "cannon" aimed at the Korean Peninsula. While the Kim Dynasty may not wise up to the mounting forces at its doorstep, Russia and China know that public support from the US shouldn't be ignored.

China, however is strengthening its long-term ambitions. The incumbent president, Xi Jinping, has been named and received honorary titles that place him above past presidents. There is talk of him becoming a "Chairman", thus equating him to Mao. Don't underestimate the power of a "mere title" in Chinese culture. Even with no written authority behind a title, Chinese culture is and always will be stronger than any law it writes to keep the "legalists" satisfied. Such a long-time leader retaining power compares him to the seemingly lifetime leader in Russia, Putin.

North Korea is a strategic linchpin for the China-Russia powers. Militarily, they cannot allow a united Korea. But, logistically, they may not be able to stop it either. Just as war games often do, propping up a Communist Dynasty may have backfired. That's a lesson to everyone, the US included. The US might not heed warnings when the balance temporarily tips in its favor. Meddling is always a bad idea, whether you win or lose, this time.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 1, 2017

The news would have us think that China’s reverse-engineered copy of a Soviet-made diesel aircraft carrier is nuclear-powered and in full commission. It’s not. It’s simply being towed from one construction site to another. But, it is another milestone step in progress and the West needs to pay close attention. With all the excitement over Korean nukes, China obtaining its own aircraft carriers is a bigger step and a bigger threat to China’s neighbors. Heads are turning in Japan and India.

Trump’s “bromance” with China’s President Xi isn’t without precedent. The two are smart. Trump is less-controlled by the big political class. No matter how much Xi may want to resolve peace, any deal he makes with Trump must be pleasing to the Communist Party of China. Perhaps some success with Trump on the Kim dynasty in Korea will help Xi persuade the old boys club in China. But, that would be a first. Old school Chinese don’t like to learn new tricks.

Eventually, Korea will make major steps toward becoming one nation. Then, the US and China will change colors in the South Sea. Both sides will have gotten what they wanted: a stable Korean Peninsula. But, when the conflict in the West Pacific erupts, all bets will be off. It won’t be America who betrays first, the Chinese will make their move after they have their excuse. The ongoing US relationship with Taiwan may be that excuse. And, in the minds of the Chinese, the US will have been wrong.

Xi and Trump will become like old generals who know each other from battle field just as well as from the tea time table. No matter how much conflict they have, they will always be grateful for their cooperation in Korea. That’s what mature generals do. And, that is the current leadership at both ends of the Pacific.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, April 10, 2017

Xi Jinping’s poker face waned. He’s not happy, though the reasons elude most Western readers. Though not democratic, Xi is a politician. He must balance wisdom with pleasing the veiled powers that overshadow the goings on of China. Those powers won’t hesitate to give the ax to any leader who fails to deliver on their expansionist ambitions. Xi has fought corruption and sought infrastructure. Xi was gaining momentum. Now, the US and Russia are rumbling in both of China’s back yards weeks after Xi announced that, where military tech is concerned, China needs to play “catch-up” or become “ketchup”. This can’t be good for Xi’s inside politics with Chinese elections approaching.

Trump certainly isn’t pulling any punches. Striking Syria while dining with China’s Chairman wasn’t unintentional. Remember, Trump has dealt with the Chinese on many occasion. Xi is difficult to read, except to say his rehearsed Asian smile is waning. A micron might as well be a mile in an Asian smile. In the weeks ahead, remember that Xi is half himself and half the hidden hand that controls all that goes on in China. That’s true of every Chinese president. In all this, Xi met with Trump and all went well. No matter when or how Xi’s career closes, no matter what his true ambitions were, China will go on and history will remember Chinese President Xi as the builder of bridges, inroads, aircraft carriers, and islands.

Xi wanted to remind the US of its Capitalist values: Don’t blame others for your problems. Yet, China clearly doesn’t share those values. Neither does North Korea, the stray dog that has adopted the doorstep at China’s northern back yard.

From China’s vantage point, North Korea is a nuisance and an excuse for an unwelcome US presence. Kim Dynasty narcissism has over-played and pushed the envelope with Beijing. Watch for Chinese heads of State to bark, then look the other way, much how the US does when Israel responds to Palestine.

So, why is the media announcing and discussing the possibilities of dealing with North Korea? True military tactics never make it on television—unless the reporter finds himself accused of a frivolous-like sexual crime and holes-up in an Ecuadoran Embassy to avoid extradition for espionage. It’s discussion on US military options like we saw over North Korea this week that makes it difficult for a US prosecution of WikiLeaks founder Julian “Espionage” Assange to seem believable from any angle. “Assassination, nuke-up, or surgical strike” are only media talking points to make the greater point: Knock it off or else.

Assassinations are illegal for the US according to the US’ own law, viz Executive Order 12333. It is doubtful, even in Trump’s stock-up on signing pens, that he plans to wipe out that order for North Korea alone—if he does, Assad is his next target and Kim was just an excuse. The US hopes to finish this situation in Korea before a nuclear buildup has time to grow moss. So does China. A “nuke-up” wouldn’t be grand strategy. An internal strike inside North Korea would illicit an avalanche. Anti-Iraq II Donald J. Trump won’t want to create another “vacuum”. A surgical strike would be an assist for something else. What’s really going on? Don’t think for one second that the media does know or that CIA doesn’t.

There’s joker in the North Korean deck and it is stacked to favor the West. We’ll just have to keep watching.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, March 13, 2017

  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1WzbdlmQMM

Forget Japanese waters, headlines worry about North Korea and Hawaii. South Korea has their own two cents to add over the assassination of Kim Jong-un’s half brother at Kuala Lumpur International. China says that North Korea and the US are like two trains headed on a collision course. China has a kind of “plan” to bring the US and North Korea together, but the US won’t make concessions for obeying a UN resolution and there is no mention of China cutting off its supply. It seems China wants to be the “great reconciler”, but the rift is too far between East and West. Japan’s answer is to strike first.

Taiwan may be able to make its own response. This week, the US handed off two Perry-class frigates to Taiwan. Taiwanese naval officers will learn how to operate the frigates from the US Navy and the ships should set sail in May. This is a very interesting development since President-elect Trump received a phone call from President Tsai, and since the US still has yet to deliver on several military sales, especially F-16s, that closed during the terms of former Presidents Obama and Ma.

China’s response to events this week is two-fold. An editorial with a persuasive tone appeared in China’s state-run Global Times, arguing that India would help itself more if it cooperated with Chinese strategies rather than Japanese and US strategies. Xi Jinping also underlined and emphasized China’s great need to catch up on technology. This comes in the wake of the coming American Lockheed Martin F-35 “Lightning II” fighter jet and the US Navy’s new electromagnetically trajected railgun. China’s response is both telling and predicting.

While China has made advances, both in approaching Tomahawk cruise missile technology and in nearing the completion of its first home made aircraft carrier (reverse engineered from a Soviet era carrier), China still feels claustrophobic. Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and India, not to mention the distant-yet-present US are all naval forces too close to China’s back yard. Xi feels the “squeeze”. China is in a tight spot.

President Xi also revisited his long-standing mission of countering squander and corruption within the Communist Party. By underlining the points he did, he seems to be vying for equity and credit. Doesn’t China’s leader have enough credibility or does Xi know something the West doesn’t? Regardlessly, the greater wild card is India. China believes that India is on the fence and is open to persuasion—and China is correct. Soon, India will feel its own squeeze. The question, then, will be whether India feels inclined to side with China rather than forces farther to its east or if India will decide to reverse engineer Western technology write persuasive editorials of its own.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, February 22, 2016

China is deploying weapons. The US is responding with pressure—mostly economic, some political, always involving alliances. Money and trade are atop the list.

China’s unusual manipulation of its money is documented and under more scrutiny than ever.

According to Chinese State-run media, China has weapons on disputed islands by right. According to the government, US concern over militarizing those islands is “hype”. Still, Asean is watching the Pacific and so is Bloomberg.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 19, 2016

Victory! Taiwan finally defeated the old enemy of the East that the Chinese Communists could not. The KMT-Nationalist party has rarely faced such a stunning defeat. The enemy of the revolution, murderer of Taiwanese and thieves of Asia’s greatest assets, the witch of the East met her end at the hands, not of soldiers and explosives, but of democracy.

Beijing would have worldwide respect in declaring victory and normalizing relations. But the land of Sun Tzu seems to have forgotten the basics of war: If one government controls an entire region, then an enemy only need take-out the central government for the entire land to fall. If Taiwan were a Chinese province, China would be less safe. As an ally that China itself could not take—an attack against China would be unwise for any adversary. But, again, Beijing seems more bent on delusions of pride than real safety. The best kept secret about respect is not that it must be earned and not bestowed, but that those who state their respect rarely mean it. Having respect of others and having others show respect are entirely different things. This is a lesson the KMT-Nationalists still haven’t seemed to learn.

China had it’s own streak this week. More than one teary-eyed apology cross the air-waves. The world continues to see China for what it is while Beijing counts more ill will an indication of progress. Perhaps Beijing is right.

Taiwan’s confidence in voting overwhelmingly for a political party that will not cow-tow to China’s hostile takeover agenda sends a message to China. While the messengers in Beijing may not deliver, the people of China read it loud and clear, perhaps for the first time: A single government can have a new political party and the people do not need to bend to the dictates of the old establishment.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, January 11, 2016

China’s economic shaking may have had more of a placebo than newspapers let on. Devalued Chinese yuan does not contribute to lower oil prices as much as the decisions of the Arabs. Even if it has a factor, lower oil prices are healthier for economies as it keeps costs lower. Perhaps China’s slowdown is good for everyone except China, and of course, Africa.

The disappearance of Hong Kong bookseller, Lee Bo, has Hong Kongers in a tizzy, still not as severe as the Umbrella Movement that ended just over a year ago. Much like the Umbrella Movement, while protests will result in little change concerning Beijing’s Hong Kong SAR policy, the world is evermore aware that there is not change.

Taiwan is set for a historic election. The opposition DPP is likely to win the presidency and likely the legislature, which would be a first. Wanting to be “friends” with Beijing has so far been the goal of the DPP and the Taiwanese, but would be seen as an insult of Beijing which wants “reunification” instead. The consequences could echo Taiwan’s first presidential election in 1996 when China shot a missile across the island.

With the tensions in the area, particularly the flyovers and bomb testing in the Koreas and protests in Hong Kong, the foreseeable diplomatic response of the White House would be in spite of an American public that is evermore aware of China’s methods and nonetheless more determined to answer.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, December 14, 2015

As elections push forward in Taiwan and Malaysia, China faces it’s own political issue: Military reform.

The report from Reuters demonstrates two things. Firstly, we see that China’s military does, in fact, need reform. This is evidenced by the 300k military jobs cut since September. With an obviously larger shakeup coming, it is clear that the change is necessary, given China’s implied military status quo.

Secondly, we learn that China needs to sell the need for reform to its own military, thereby implying that, while the reform is necessary, many remain yet to be convinced that it is.

Generally speaking, growing assertiveness while implementing reform where there is no current invasion underway is typically an attempt to spread oneself too thin. This not only relates to the failing political establishment in Taiwan and Malaysia, but generic maritime strategy in the Pacific.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, November 9, 2015

The two presidents of the two governments of China met in Singapore. The exiled government was protested on the island where it remains in exile. It was a wild week. Taiwan’s president, Ma, defended the importance of dialog while nearly every branch of his government clashed with protests.

The meeting comes at the brink of significant change. Taiwan is about to undergo a historic turnover of political powers. This may be the last chance the fading KMT-Nationalist establishment has for high-profile dialog with their Communist arch enemy in Beijing.

While China appears as strong as it is controversial, the US whispers about undisclosed technologies that the Communists will not want to encounter in the Pacific. Everyone has his story.

China

A Day After Summit, China Again Warns Taiwan Against Independence

US defense chief warns of conflict in S. China Sea

…”‘Surprising’ new technologies”

Goldman’s BRIC Era Ends as Fund Folds After Years of Losses

…”The excitement came from the rapid growth from China…”

Taiwan

Ma defends significance of meeting with Xi

Protesters, police injured in overnight demonstrations

…Sunflower students return, stormed military base, college official arrested, police clash at legislature and presidential palace

Meeting limits Taiwan’s cross-strait options: Tsai

Further reading…

Protesters rally to condemn meeting

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, October 12, 2015

China didn’t make any friends this week. Beijing spies on every street corner with a service literally named “Skynet”.

The Pentagon wants a strong Taiwan. The US Navy plans to challenge China’s man-made military airport-seaport islands. Most people don’t know exactly where the islands are since they aren’t listed on many maps. But if you happen to have a recent Chinese passport, the islands would fall within the nine-dash line, along with Taiwan, parts of the Philippines, and a number of other territories we thought belonged to other countries.

Local Pacific politics are another big question mark this week. Malaysia’s PM is having “royal” trouble, literally. Taiwan’s failing KMT-Nationalist party seems to be cannibalizing their own Presidential front-runner. Who knows what will happen or even if it will matter.

Old guard and Establishment parties are facing the masses en masse. It’s not just happening in the Pacific, but also in the Americas and Europe.  · · · →

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, September 28, 2015

The unstated reason Chinese Pres. Xi snubbed Zuckerberg is probably for his age. Chinese think a man can’t do business until he’s at least in his 40’s and “is old enough to grow a mustache”. Whatever the reason, China having a Facebook page that Chinese can’t see, arriving in America with CEO’s fawning over him, it’s clear that China’s culture hasn’t changed and Xi is deeply entrenched in it. That should scare Americans because Chinese friendships can easily be used as fronts to get what they want, with unapologetic and total deception.

Zuckerberg’s Mandarin has terrible pronunciation. The crowd that applauds him is not giving a warm affirmation of quality and appreciation as an American audience would, but are “being polite”, giving the response they “should” when someone displays even the smallest attempt at their mother language. The more “happy” the crowd seems, actually, the worse his performance. If Zuck’s Mandarin was really good, the crowd would have been silent and wide-eyed.  · · · →

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 25, 2015

The US flies over China’s man-made islets, China is is not happy. China wants Taiwan to fight to protect China’s sovereignty, which China may think includes their man-made islets. The UN does not recognize man-made islands as a rightful claim to sovereign waters, but that is exactly what China is doing. The US won’t have it.

Chinese professors are accused of stealing US technology, the Pentagon is involved. Asia in general, except China, is irritated with Chinese and American meddling in Taiwan’s presidential elections.

Taiwanese protesting China were beaten by tattooed men in black clothes. China’s economy may not be the best, but it’s banks may be, at least Forbes thinks so. Everyone seems to have an opinion on everyone else these days. For better or worse, no one seems to want to stay home.

Top

Exclusive: China warns U.S. surveillance plan

…CNN video from the spy plane

The US Position on the ‘1992 Consensus’: Why it Matters

Japan

Stay out of Taiwan presidential race

…Editorial from Japan Times

China

Chinese banks took the four top spots in Forbes’ list of the world’s most powerful companies

…Charts

China signs US$27 billion oil, trade deals with Brazil

Two Chinese professors ‘stole US technology’

Taiwan

Anti-China demonstrators attacked by black-clad men

…After catching the black-clad men, the police let them go

China rejects Taipei’s defiance on law

Ma’s disapproval rating near 70%: polls

What Would Taiwan Actually Gain from Reunification with China?  · · · →

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 18, 2015

It all happened in a week. Man-made land isn’t sovereign land says UN. 12 nautical miles is “sovereign”. US Navy to park inside 12 miles of China’s man-made islets in the making; a volatile military standoff is inevitable. A US invitation to Beijing for annual Navy practice must also invite Taiwan! Beijing rebukes.

Taiwan’s controlling, Beijing-friendly KMT-Nationalist party has no strong Presidential candidate; opposition DPP has one front-runner with party-wide support. Beijing won’t be happy.

US unveils new multi-purpose drones. China enacts old multi-warhead nukes. Japan was never a better friend to the US, says Kerry.

Kerry and Xi smile for the camera in a series of meetings resemblant of pre-WWII Europe; USA Today reports Xi describing the situation as “stable”, a description that wouldn’t necessary if it were true.

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US House passes RIMPAC Taiwan rule

…If Beijing practices with US Navy, so can Taiwan, Beijing won’t be happy. And…

China Making Some Missiles More Powerful

…NY Times, diagrams and explanation of MIRV and timeline

What’s Going On with President Ma?  · · · →

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 11, 2015

Taiwan makes headlines in KMT-Nationalist-related corruption, KMT president hopeful Chu reportedly speaking as if Taiwan is part of China, and China “droning” up to attack.

The Pentagon reports China preparing to bomb Taiwan, saying “Preparing for potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait remains the focus and primary driver of China’s military investment,” weighing cost and benefit like a business transaction.

Russia invited China to V-Day’s military saber-rattle parade. Japan rattles their own sabers, buying Osprey helicopters from the US and being as loud about it as possible.

China slams Japan for not being sincere enough in apologizing for WWII… While Beijing prepares to start WWIII over an island half the size of Lake Michigan.

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China preparing for Taiwan conflict: report

U.S. May Sell 100 Ospreys Abroad: Official

…including India, Singapore, Australia, Japan

Chu goes there?

…AP reporter in Beijing forced to retract… journalism’s inside baseball

If the Unthinkable Occurred: America Should Stand Up to China over Taiwan

Taiwan

China planning to build 42,000 drones, report says

A Rather Lackluster Performance by Xi During Meeting with Chu

…Chinese President Xi, Taiwan President hopeful shake hands… Why would this picture make anyone in Taiwan want to vote KMT-Nationalist?  · · · →

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