Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 18, 2018

Trump has stopped military exercises near North Korea, but he has not initiated any plans to withdraw troops. His reason for stopping the exercises is that they are provocative and expensive. He has a point: If the heads of state are talking then we are less in need of fighting practice in a scenario where heads of state are not talking.

The military exercises with South Korea are expensive and provocative, as Trump explains. Frankly, they should stop. With healthy conversations and progress toward peace already behind us, there won't be a need for those drills any longer. Rehearsal for conflict that might never exist can often provoke the very conflicts we otherwise would not need to prepare for. As for the "expense" defense, few accountants will argue in favor of nickeling and diming away money as fiscally responsible and no one believes that taxpayers' pockets are infinitely deep except pundits with portfolios in public funding.

The Western news is that Trump is wrong, specifically with regard to China that China wins. According to this week's Western news narrative, China wins because of troop withdrawals that haven't happened, because a friend of China will de-nuke, and because over 30k US troops will be free to go home—or go to Taiwan, Mischief Reef, Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan, or any number of other Pacific island-nations China doesn't get along with.

Economically, China "wins" because manufacturing is leaving China—which must therefore mean that China's innovation and science is the new source of manufacturing elsewhere. Perhaps that includes innovation and science like the Chinese government now trying to track every car with a chip as of 2019. The "Mad Scientist" theorem of the experimental police state research moving from North Korea to China continues to play out.

Just remember with everything: There's more going on than anyone can see. Deals between governments are never fully explained to the public. They shouldn't be. But, as peace develops in one part of the western Pacific, hostilities move around and every pundit seizes opportunity to say, "I was right." No conflict is without news profiteering.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 18, 2018

Trump has stopped military exercises near North Korea, but he has not initiated any plans to withdraw troops. His reason for stopping the exercises is that they are provocative and expensive. He has a point: If the heads of state are talking then we are less in need of fighting practice in a scenario where heads of state are not talking.

The military exercises with South Korea are expensive and provocative, as Trump explains. Frankly, they should stop. With healthy conversations and progress toward peace already behind us, there won't be a need for those drills any longer. Rehearsal for conflict that might never exist can often provoke the very conflicts we otherwise would not need to prepare for. As for the "expense" defense, few accountants will argue in favor of nickeling and diming away money as fiscally responsible and no one believes that taxpayers' pockets are infinitely deep except pundits with portfolios in public funding.

The Western news is that Trump is wrong, specifically with regard to China that China wins. According to this week's Western news narrative, China wins because of troop withdrawals that haven't happened, because a friend of China will de-nuke, and because over 30k US troops will be free to go home—or go to Taiwan, Mischief Reef, Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan, or any number of other Pacific island-nations China doesn't get along with.

Economically, China "wins" because manufacturing is leaving China—which must therefore mean that China's innovation and science is the new source of manufacturing elsewhere. Perhaps that includes innovation and science like the Chinese government now trying to track every car with a chip as of 2019. The "Mad Scientist" theorem of the experimental police state research moving from North Korea to China continues to play out.

Just remember with everything: There's more going on than anyone can see. Deals between governments are never fully explained to the public. They shouldn't be. But, as peace develops in one part of the western Pacific, hostilities move around and every pundit seizes opportunity to say, "I was right." No conflict is without news profiteering.

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Symphony

Encore of Revival: America, June 18, 2018

The meeting between Kim and Trump has been twisted into a bet over Iran. Canada and Iran believe Obama's Iran deal is the model. They are staking their reputations of knowing what kind of deals lead where in the fate of the Kim-Trump summit. The results will speak for themselves.

In the aftermath of Summit Kim-Trump, Trumpists see the glass as 3/4 full while while Anti-Trumpists see the glass as 3/4 empty. No sitting president has met with the leader of North Korea and received concessions. The Iran deal was arguably as bad as Anti-Trumpists claim Kim-Trump was, and Iran involved cash payments while Kim-Trump did not. The only conclusion we can draw is that people support whomever they already support, our favorites can do no wrong and our disfavored can do nothing right.

The US is polarizing, but the poles are also shifting.

Some LGBTQAYKXYZYTBA folk are moving to agree with the old Conservative position on the value of individual gun ownership. It will have a unifying effect in the United States and will ensure the eventual downfall of both the Republican and Democrat parties for having failed so miserably in their scripted prognoses of the American voter. With taxes being lower and the Federal Government making more revenue, Democrat-dependent myths about taxes are being exposed, but that doesn't indicate a nation moving toward a Republican establishment.

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Symphony

Encore of Revival: America, June 18, 2018

The meeting between Kim and Trump has been twisted into a bet over Iran. Canada and Iran believe Obama's Iran deal is the model. They are staking their reputations of knowing what kind of deals lead where in the fate of the Kim-Trump summit. The results will speak for themselves.

In the aftermath of Summit Kim-Trump, Trumpists see the glass as 3/4 full while while Anti-Trumpists see the glass as 3/4 empty. No sitting president has met with the leader of North Korea and received concessions. The Iran deal was arguably as bad as Anti-Trumpists claim Kim-Trump was, and Iran involved cash payments while Kim-Trump did not. The only conclusion we can draw is that people support whomever they already support, our favorites can do no wrong and our disfavored can do nothing right.

The US is polarizing, but the poles are also shifting.

Some LGBTQAYKXYZYTBA folk are moving to agree with the old Conservative position on the value of individual gun ownership. It will have a unifying effect in the United States and will ensure the eventual downfall of both the Republican and Democrat parties for having failed so miserably in their scripted prognoses of the American voter. With taxes being lower and the Federal Government making more revenue, Democrat-dependent myths about taxes are being exposed, but that doesn't indicate a nation moving toward a Republican establishment.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 11, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AGJwdVdR5E

The historians and experts are all hysterical about the historic meeting between Trump and Kim. They warn that JFK appeared too week while Nixon's aggression didn't intimidate. No one can win in the eyes of the hindsight expert who sees himself as the smartest guy in the room. But, history has already been made: Trump brought Warmbier home and Kim to the table. No one has done either before as a sitting president.

For the record, former President Bill Clinton did bring home Lisa Ling's younger sister from North Korea under Kim Jong-Il, but he wasn't president at the time and he wasn't dealing with the same leader. Still, Clinton deserves kudos. Presidents Clinton and Trump should have a victory cigar together at some point.

Kim Jong-Un is a kid who has never known the free world. Though there are rumors of him having attended school as a kid in Europe, it would have been just enough to gain an appetite, not an understanding. Donald J. Trump is an old, wealthy man. With talk of a McDonald's and a Trump resort in North Korea being on Kim's wish list, everyone should expect the conversation to be that of the young kid eagerly asking daddy for gifts. Trump's answer will likely be similar to his response to Senator Feinstein, "Sure we can do that..." with the added, "But, those things aren't given by eternally rich countries since no country is eternally rich. Those things are part of a world culture of people coming in and going out, but your father and grandfather wouldn't let people go in or out. If you just let people go in and out, you can get those things yourself without having to ask me."

In all likelihood, no one has ever told those things to Kim Jong-Un before, not even South Korean President Moon who began the current outreach. Everyone has his role. Moon was the charm, Trump may be the evangelist who delivers the good news no one else could. This meeting is not about a hashed-out, jig-sawed "deal"; it's about the only man in the world with both the power and the words to explain life and love to the only man in the world who can't receive those ideas from anyone else.

As Trump and Kim prepare to meet tomorrow, the main news in the Western press about China is China possibly spying on the Trump-Kim summit, that and flashbacks to Nixon and Mao. The rest focuses on the old script of news in China: economics. The SCO summit includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Russia, China, and India. They basically met to agree that they agree. Clearly, China and its neighborhood is solidifying a stark alliance to contrast morphing alliances in the West—and the West's growing alliance with some nations to China's east.

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Encore of Revival: America, June 11, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rVRS9T9U60

Reciprocal trade is the trend of everyone. Canada charges 270% tariffs on US dairy in the midst of the NAFTA "free trade" agreement, Trump threatens to charge other tariffs if trade isn't even, and Trudeau objects to reciprocal tariffs and threatens them at the same summit. If the results were allowed to speak for themselves, it would be hard to know if anyone wants free trade or reciprocal tariffs or if people just want to argue. But, the results aren't in yet. Until they are, we don't know.

Trump left a G7 summit, wishing it were a G8 summit to include Russia, making it a G6 summit while he left for his own G2 summit in Singapore with Kim Jong-Un. Trump solidified the certainty of that summit by canceling it. Reciprocal trade will almost surely be on the shelf. The Western press can't not speculate, especially with the old wives tale that investment is the primary source of economic stimulation—generally overlooking hard work, balancing free markets with regulation, and ingenuity.

The reason Russia is not at the G 7/8 summit is because it took back Crimea via referendum. Khrushchev gave Crimea to the Ukraine in 1954, which was a controversy all to its own. The Obama administration's response was to alienate Russia. Russia's main faux pas in the recovery of Crimea was flying its Russian flag over a government building taken by Russian soldiers prior to the referendum, but that received little attention. The West's opinion at the time was largely limited to who should own what territory in Ukraine and Russia.

Amazon is listening and respecting the religious needs of its Muslim workers in the Twin Cities. Fasting is hot work and the Muslim immigrants need a cooler, slower-paced work environment during Ramadan. No word in the news, however, on reciprocal trade working conditions, such as whether Amazon has negotiated for disposable barbecue celebrations for Taoists on Chinese holidays or fish Friday for Catholics who have so generously immigrated to Muslim countries.

Talk show news punetdom is losing, in life, a lion of the mind, Charles Krauthammer. When the other talking heads from the Potomac beltway and NPR niggled over opinions of the press and heads of state, Krauthammer explained the three step process of delivering a nuclear weapon and where Kim Jong-Il had made progress within those steps. He resented terms like "Washington establishment" and also objected to Trump for fighting against an establishment he deemed mythical. He represented a sobering voice of reason and calm, disagreed with almost everyone about something, politely held to his own opinions, and remained courteous in discussion. He shared a letter within the past few days that cancer is ending his life and he has only weeks to live. The world of ideas and politics already misses him.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, June 4, 2018

North Korea inches further and further toward talks with the US. China fears this. If Kim Jong-Un get in the same room as the man who wrote The Art of the Deal, North Korea could become a stronger ally to the US than even South Korea overnight. That would likely lead to a quick reunification of the Korean Peninsula, as well as other shifts in power, even before any alliance might be formalized. But, Trump's deal-making reputation should bring no shocks to what is about to transpire in the Singapore Summit.

Then, there's China, about to be left behind. The hardline crackdown on free speech throughout China won't be without consequence. Symphony has been saying so for years; Albert Ho effectively said the same, quoted in a Bloomberg article dated June 4. Party power is getting brittle. But, the consequences of brutal brittality are rarely explored. So, here goes.

Hong Kong won't shut up anytime soon. The whining, whimpering bratty students of Hong Kong may be wrong to demand rights when freedom was largely handed to them by the British. But, those bratty students sure are drawing a press load of attention to China. That alone should be a heavy factor in logistics calculation. Hong Kong is a megaphone for any anti-China sentiment because the world reads about Hong Kong every day. After all, Hong Kong is "Asia's World City".

But, then there's the problem of cracking down within "China proper", the Mainland governed directly by Beijing, not a SAR like Hong Kong or Macau. If China considers friendly sarcasm to be a threat within China—that means tech companies and hardware manufacturers won't have candid conversations about quality control and competitive design. Once free speech becomes a minefield, people will divert mental resources away from fee and open brainstorming toward making sure that they don't say anything offensive. The key to good brainstorm sessions and innovation is that nothing is off the table and no one is allowed to take offense at anything whatsoever. That's can't happen in China anymore. Bye-bye Western manufacturing paradise. It's only a matter of time before Western outsourcing brands figure it out. One little story, like an innovator being locked up for a tech suggestion because it was interpreted as "opposing to the Party", might plunge Chinese factory stocks into the void below.

"Single-Party Rule" is the key topic now, at least according to Western papers. That's the protest mantra in Hong Kong. It's the talking point of headlines and marches. It is the so-called "problem" as is being presented to the world. The Western press is on a path for reporting a narrative that stirs sentiment for two-party rule in China. Whether it's a typhoon, an earthquake, a solar flare, or some other "act of God", if China suddenly adopts a two-party system, Western newspaper readers will have already been prepped to think it is a good thing.

Then, there's Vietnam, exploring foreign investment "zones". Deserved or unfair, distrust is stirring against China as a place of investment. This will have a double-edged effect in Vietnam. Firstly, Western manufacturing will flock to Vietnam as a way of fleeing the newspaper villain, China. But, with a Communist Party having total rule in Vietnam, Western investors will demand certain assurances before dumping too much money into yet another single-party market. Sooner or later, we could be looking at Vietnam adopting a friendly two-party system as a stronger strategy of competing with China. That will only add to the momentum of change in East Asia.

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Encore of Revival: America, June 4, 2018

Trey Gowdy's act is over. Over the years he made many statements that any novice analyst could predict would draw respect from normal America. Now, he supports the FBI, against the instincts of his hard-earned supporters, without having read up on what he's talking about? Perhaps the whole time he ran on instinct and just got lucky. Nearing retirement, his lucky streak is running out. Perhaps he should just retire altogether and quit while he's ahead. He's already done so much that he could make a bigger difference from Twitter, on the condition that he reads up in advance and stays on his game like Rudy Giuliani.

Giuliani has some of the best and most-common sense advice about Russianewsgategate: No interview without seeing the evidence first. That's just, plain normal practice. Rudy's statement is a warning shot across Mueller's bow, specifically that Rudy is neither fool nor pushover, not to mention that Mueller has already gone out of bounds by not offering that evidence prior to seeking an interview. So-called "experts" and other political pundits should be able to figure out by now that Trump is bulletproof. The good news for the country is that Giuliani is achieving his mission, even against the current; he's bringing the Russianewsgategate scandal to a peaceful halt.

The cancellation of Rosanne is abominable—not because of the political alignments, but because of the "always cave-in" cowardice mode of operation in corptocratic America. Rosanne Barr deserves a purple heart and a medal of honor in the social world. People make regrettable remarks, whether we say what we don't really think or we blurt whatever we think when we might should keep it to ourselves. It is the fool who dost not forgive.

ABC and Disney just trashed one of the most shining gems in their own industry, from within their own collection. The lead actress exercised the same kind of free speech and vocabulary that the Left use every day, and the industry giants shut down one of their own best-viewed shows in history, unemploying the cast, and vanishing its viewers. That doesn't make math. If Rosanne Barr was in violation of any contract, she should have been fined. This compares to shooting helpless hostages when the scientist won't dance to the furer's demands. So, ABC and Disney have set the precedent in the entertainment establishment: If you are part of a show, you're being held hostage as the escape goat should someone else get out of line with the party.

In light of the less-so-silent majority, Rosanne Barr could be the most employable woman in growing Conservative America.

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Symphony

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 28, 2018

The US "disinvited" two countries this week, not only North Korea, but also China from the biannual naval exercises in Hawaii. Both "disinvitations" were a rescinding of a previous invitation after less than friendly saber rattling from the former invitee. Kim Jong Un's loud mouth is widely known, so the North Korean "disinvitation" came as no surprise.

China, specifically, has been pressuring African countries to "dis-recognize" Taiwan in favor of Beijing policy. Additionally, China has been pressuring US companies to follow otherwise unrecognized Chinese maps placing Taiwan under China's political sovereignty, as well as companies from other countries—which Taiwan is not currently under the control of. China sees the request as part of a grand goal of "reunification" and a nostalgic return to the rhapsodic geographical past as the keystone of a socioeconomic strengthening strategy.

The problem from the Western corporate perspective is with the dictionary, not with ideology. China's government does not decide the laws on Taiwan's island currently, not in any way. So, listing Taiwan "under" China would create confusion for Western tourists. But, China is run by Communists who believe that logistics are to be dictated, not recognized. In the land of Communist-Chinese, if tourists would be confused, the solution is to simply make a new law this afternoon outlawing tourists who are confused. So, Beijing doesn't believe the West has any legitimate problem with the policy, but that Western companies are only trying to spite Beijing.

Washington, however, does view the problem as ideological. It would be wrong for Washington to dictate the organizational nomenclature of the Bank of China or Sky News or Spotify. So would be any reciprocal resemblance. Under Trump, Washington is enforcing that ideology globally.

Then, there was yet another snafu among China's man-made islands. The US can't stop making news in Taiwan. A Senator makes an "unexpected" visit. US weapons developers are planning to set up shop in Taiwan. The US and Taiwan have decided that they can't build Taiwanese submarines fast enough. And, the US has decided that Taiwan needs the absolutely best defense to respond to Chinese "saber rattling", not only asymmetric defense. All of this is remarkably irritating and "disrespectful" to China.

China hates few things more than being disrespected.

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Encore of Revival: America, May 28, 2018

Charlie Cook now says what Symphony has said for weeks: Republicans look more and more like they are headed for an unusual midterm upswing. The part you won't read is how much it looks like a Democrat conspiracy to get Republicans elected—because, if reverse psychology were the plan, Democrats played every note on cue and in key. There's no evidence of this at all, other than how incredibly flawless the execution seems to be. Either it is a conspiracy for some crazy cause or the current Democrats in office are just as stupid as the Republicans during Bush's second term.

The general political trend over the weekend was the correlation between society and meteorology. The day after a civil protest occurs, the weather goes nutso. If the government "zaps" publication of the courts, lightning strikes sixty thousand times. If a mob floods the streets one day, a flood floods the streets the next. Now, a hurricane is on its way to Florida. Make sure, if you plan to go golfing in the afternoon, don't express any objections outside any government buildings in the morning. Your T-time might get rained on.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 21, 2018

Talk only went so far this week. I looks as if North Korea might not be dismantling its nukes, but hiding them, then threatening to close talks when exposed for this, then threatening to cancel the summit for some other list of excuses.

The big question on Kim Jong-Un backing out on the talks relates to his recent visits to China. Not that China has made any wild promises, but he feels somewhat confident in getting lippy with the US.

The big lesson was about Moon's emphasis on diplomacy vs Trump's emphasis on teeth. Diplomacy made progress in terms of leading to more diplomacy. But, actual action is a measurement of its own. So far, Trump's action has led to China losing interest in any kind of trade war and Moon's favored diplomacy seems to be leading to an undiplomatic end to diplomacy.

Things aren't over nor have we seen the last surprise. The big news of the week is that China's on the bench. Moon and Trump will meet to discuss Kim having a discussion with them in Singapore. Where's China?—announcing its surrender on trade, reflecting on past meetings with Kim, another player that doesn't really matter.

If Kim doesn't show up, Moon's populist diplomacy will prove to have failed and Trump will have the "political currency" for action against North Korea. Maybe that's what China hopes for in allowing Kim to gain false hopes in something or other—to rationalize a little retaliatory action of its own. But, if military action was China's first preference, Beijing would have already taken it.

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Encore of Revival: America, May 21, 2018

Call it a Shame of Thrones or a Game of Showns, but Mueller has shown his game to his own shame. By waiting as long as he has, Trump possesses the "political currency" to order the DOJ to investigate the Obama FBI. He couldn't have done that a year ago. But, by letting Mueller "mull" on, as it were, the Russianewsgategate "thing" has irritated everyone, even the Anti-Trumpists, for its lack of results, yet continued pursuit in what looks more and more like a ghost chase every day—now every hour.

Roger Stone says Trump might not run in the next term—if he gets his [twelve years worth of] work done in only four. With Democrats requiring 84 days to approve each of 300 Trump appointees, it's unlikely Trump will finish in four years, as Stone's hypothetical went. Michael Jordan said the same thing about himself year after year, that he might not play the following season—encouraging his opponents to get lazy. It's a ruse Trump opponents would be foolish to buy into. If the Democrats really wanted Trump to not run again, they would approve all his Senate appointees and build his wall in one vote. Then, it would be difficult for Trump to argue any need to stay, even with such "huge" results.

The Senate's vote on net neutrality is a necessary step. Internet needs some kind of regulation, even if to say that it needs no regulation, even if to protect it from anti-Capitalist corptocrats who donate to "Blue Dog Republicans". If Facebook and Google want to provide faster Internet then they can become their own Internet service providers. If Verizon wants to say which big, fat companies can "pay for lane" in the website rat race, then Verizon should provide that Internet service free of charge. But, as long as customers pay, those customers should get to decide the lanes. This is not to be decided by Verizon, AT&T, Facebook, Google, Apple, and other big, fat companies that have more money than many governments of the world. Capitalism does not infer that private companies should overrule human rights.

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Cadence of Conflict: Asia, May 14, 2018

Disassembling nuke sites prior to meeting Trump may seem like a "save of face" for Kim Jong-Un, but it's actually a statement of Trump's influence. If Trump wasn't an influence, then Kim wouldn't be doing what Trump has been demanding for a long time. No doubt, North Korea and its pro-Communist supporters in the Liberal media will twist this into "Trump not making a difference" from Trump getting what he wanted even before a meeting.

The comparison from history would be a feudal lord quickly accomplishing everything his king asked before his next royal visit. To say the king didn't make a difference would be just plain ignorant. We should expect as much.

But, Trump wants it that way. The more Trump has his name on the Korean reunification, the more China's desperate thirst for "respect" will sting. China wants everything to look like everything everywhere was China's idea, or else throw a temper tantrum. Trump's low-key silence will deny the "fight fix" and the semi-centennial tantrum will have to wait a little longer.

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Encore of Revival: America, May 14, 2018

Trump rescinding the so-called "Iran deal" will improve his position with other nations, North Korea only being one of them. Actually, it wasn't a "deal" because Iran never signed anything.

Any "reputation" lost would be on Iran's side for entering into a "deal" that even they didn't commit to. Now the non-committal "deal" is off. Iran shouldn't have expected anything. Now, at the bargaining table, Trump will be in a better position because nations know that he will actually follow through and only make deals that are real and binding.

This goes back to Obama's great failure of his own base: He didn't make laws that would last, he only made policies that depend on him being president in order to last, in this he exploited his voters by giving them high hopes and letting them get angry—the whole time Obama never told his own supporters the truth that everything he accomplished after Obamacare was designed to be blown away with the wind.

Iranians weren't the only party with "gullible" written their foreheads; Obama voters were too, and Obama conned all of them.

The disturbing thing about the Iran "deal" is the reaction. Russia is very protective of that "deal". That should be enough to call the "deal" off—and to prove that there was no substance in the Russianewsgategate "collusion" myth. But, where are all the stories in the press about how the "deal" was bad for the US? Having given $1.7B in cash to Iran should at least receive mention from a supposed "non-biased" media.

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